CDIMThe Tokyo Olympics have begun
The Tokyo Olympics have begun. The pros and cons of the event were asked until just before the corona wreck (some people still say that it should be canceled), but I think that the activities of the players every day are really wonderful and I am watching TV. .. By the way, I sincerely hoped that the event would be held with an audience for a completely private reason that the ticket was won. So I was thinking of writing that grudge in this column, but ... I came here and the infection with the new coronavirus in Japan is expanding rapidly, and on July 28, I recorded a record high in both Japan and Tokyo. Did.
Not only because I had a ticket, but also because I was wondering "Why can't I be in the audience?" Because other sporting events were so crowded, especially at the Wimbledon Tennis Championships. It's shocking to see the spectators cheering without a mask, and why is the Olympics telling us to cancel the tournament itself? I couldn't help thinking. (* At the Wimbledon Championship, it seems that the spectators were required to have a negative proof of a simple test at the time of admission and proof that they had been vaccinated twice two weeks ago.)
I think that various people have made insistences and comments regarding the pros and cons of hosting the Olympic Games or the current situation of the spread of infection, but I think that the views are divided among those who can be called medical experts. increase. It is quite difficult for an amateur like me to believe what kind of information.
For example, I think Hiroshi Nishiura, who is regularly interviewed on BuzzFeed News, is one of the representatives who still insists that the Olympics should be canceled. (1) The number of infected people is increasing worldwide, (2) One of the factors is that the highly infectious Delta strain has not stopped, (3) Stronger measures such as legislation prohibiting going out are required, and (4) Infection It has been argued that the expanding Olympics will be cancelled. On the other hand, Kiyoshi Owada, who is serialized in PRESIDENT Online, insists that the Olympics should be held by spectators. (1) In Japan, the epidemic of corona is small in the first place, (2) Vaccination of the elderly who are becoming more severe is almost completed, (3) In the future, the main focus will be on dealing with mild or asymptomatic young people, and (4) the Olympics will be attended by spectators. Has been claimed. Which is the correct answer?
Reference:Related Articles on BuzzFeed
Reference:Related articles on PRESIDENT Online
I wonder if I can say something with the data because it is a consultant ...
1. Number of infected people ⇒ Certainly rapidly expanding. The impact of Delta stock seems to be great
As mentioned at the beginning, the number of infected people is rapidly increasing in Japan, and the number on July 28 is 9,582 people nationwide and 3,177 people in Tokyo, which is a record high for the number of newly infected people per day. Delta strains account for about 50% in Tokyo in mid-July (estimated by the National Institute of Infectious Diseases), which is expected to reach 80% at the end of the month. Apparently, considering that the impact of the four consecutive holidays, which has significantly increased the number of people compared to last year, will come out in the future, it seems that it can be said that it is "still likely to increase", and Japan confronts the number of infected people who have not experienced so far. It seems that it will be done.
By the way, I think that those who describe Japan as "ripples" have such data in their minds ...
(Average daily number of infected people in each country as of July 28)
United States: 61,354 ＞ UK: 29,703 ＞ France: 20,349 ＞ Japan: 5,117 ＞ Germany: 1,838 ＞ South Korea: 1,595
2. Number of hospitalized patients, number of serious injuries, number of deaths ⇒ Is medical care likely to be tight?
Next, how serious the situation is likely to be due to the spread of infection, and whether medical care is likely to be tight, but since there are many numbers, I made a simple table (Table 1). Numerically speaking, the number of inpatients has increased to between the 3rd and 4th waves. The bed usage rate is 38%, so it doesn't seem like we're in a hurry yet.
It seems that the image of the number of seriously ill patients will change greatly depending on whether they are viewed according to Tokyo standards or national standards. According to Tokyo standards, it has increased to the same level as the 4th wave, but there is no clear tendency for rapid expansion yet, and the bed usage rate for critically ill patients is 20%. If this is the national standard, there are already severely ill patients with the third wave or higher, and the bed usage rate will be 53%, so I feel that it is not good unless something is done. It is also important to note that there is a time lag between the peak number of infected patients and the peak number of inpatients and critically ill patients. Even if the peak of the spread of infection is now (7/29), I think that the effect will probably be seen around the time of the closing of the Olympic Games, but by Tokyo standards, it is a little that medical care is about to collapse immediately. I think it's still early. (* Definition of critically ill patients: Tokyo standard = ventilator or ECMO user National standard = ventilator, ECMO user, and ICU entrant)
Also, one thing that can be said with certainty from one data is that "the number of deaths may not increase." The number of deaths is also lagging behind the number of infected people, so it is not yet conclusive, but the number of deaths has shown a clear decrease since the 4th wave and is still on an increasing trend. It doesn't look like. I think this is important as a change in how we should grasp the situation of the entire corona virus.
Reference:NHK special site New coronavirus (change in the number of domestic infections and deaths)
3. Vaccination ⇒ Have you achieved the most important mission yet?
The cumulative number of vaccinations in Japan has exceeded 80 million. 33.42 million people completed two vaccinations (26.3% of the total population), and 37.4% of those who received at least one vaccination. This figure says, "30 million people have already been vaccinated as many people as in the UK!" And "The vaccination rate of 26.3% is still less than half that of the UK!" Can be expressed. Regarding how to view (show) the data, it is important to note that the original information is the same, but it gives a completely different impression. There are actually a lot of people in Japan here, so I think it is appropriate to see it as "still" as a whole. I don't think we should take the plunge as much as Britain, which has decided to "normalize" this area.
On the other hand, for those aged 65 and over, just 70.0% have completed two doses and 85.0% have at least one dose. I think this can be considered to be "significantly" advanced inoculation, and it seems to have a significant impact on the current death toll situation. The proportion of newly infected persons aged 65 and over has decreased significantly since June (4.9% as of 7/7), and 96% of all deaths by age have been elderly people in their 60s or older. Due to the limited number of people, the current spread of infection may not lead to an increase in the number of deaths. The number of infected people in their 40s and 50s is increasing, because the number of elderly people is decreasing, so that's the case when compared.
So what about after all? I mean ...
There are various perspectives, and I don't know what will happen yet, but I would like to conclude that it doesn't make much sense ... Japan has come to the next phase. That is my impression. Apparently, it seems that the new Corona is no longer a "dying disease", I think the overall situation from the data. Of course, some people are suffering now, and the number of deaths is not zero. The response is to be careful, especially while paying close attention to changes in the number of critically ill patients, but now it has been said several times, for example, rather than thinking about making a fuss and enforcing restrictions on going out as a whole. I think that it is becoming more realistic to take measures such as changing the classification to the five categories equivalent to influenza to make it easier for medical care to respond.
At the very least, even though we have no spectators, no public viewing, and no watching games while drinking at the sports bar, the number of infected people has increased, so we are just asking "Do we prioritize the Olympics over human life?" I don't think the situation will change even if it is canceled. Good luck Japan!
Responsibility: Ai Ito
Ai Ito (CDI Medical Consultant Co., Ltd.)
Completed a master's course at the Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Osaka University (pharmacist). Completed a master's degree at Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine.
After working as a trading company, an independent venture capital firm, a healthcare / bio venture company, a management consulting firm, etc. Conducts consulting including strategy support and execution support, including mid-term business strategy, new business strategy, overseas development, open innovation strategy, etc., mainly in the life sciences and healthcare field.